October 1, 2010

Heading into the season's final weekend, the pool's standings give the appearance of a wide-open battle for the top spot. Unfortunately, looks can be deceiving, as there doesn't seem to be a realistic scenario that would involve anyone but Jud or David finishing in first.

In a somewhat unprecedented move, I'm going to handicap the categories that are still in question and make a prediction as to the final outcome of this year's pool. Considering my (Dan's) performance in the pool over the course of the last six years, you should probably choose to take these prognostications with a grain of salt.

Between our two top contenders, it basically comes down to the following four statistical categories:

AL RBI: With Miguel Cabrera out for the season, and leading a red-hot Alex Rodriguez (26 RBI in 22 September games) by just three in this category, it's looking like David has a chance to grab another point. Prediction: A-Rod rests one of the Yankees' final three games and comes up short of the league lead.

AL Runs: Cabrera is tied with Mark Teixeira for the league lead, but they're only one ahead of Derek Jeter, another development that could benefit Mr. Jones. Prediction: One D.J. comes through for another.

AL Strikeouts: Felix Hernandez leads Jered Weaver by three, but Hernandez has been shut down for the season and Weaver pitches tonight. Jones really needs King Felix to hang on to this category. Prediction: Weaver grabs the lead with four or more Ks, costing David a much-needed point in the standings.

NL RBI: Albert Pujols leads Carlos Gonzalez by one. As far as I can tell, both players should be in the lineup all weekend. Prediction: Pujols hangs on to the top spot, which in turn helps Jud hang on to win the pool.